Cornel Thompson vs Áureo Cruz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record3-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
68"Reach63"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TBDTeamNew Generation MMA
What's at stake
Cornel Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Áureo Cruz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1644
If they lose-20→ 1612
If they win+30→ 1576
If they lose-18→ 1528
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cornel ThompsonÁureo Cruz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cornel Thompson60%
Áureo Cruz 40%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Cornel Thompson a 60% favorite over Áureo Cruz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Cornel Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1632 to 1546, a 86-point edge.
Cornel Thompson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Cornel Thompson finishes 18% of wins inside the distance, Áureo Cruz 67%.
Cornel Thompson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.