Combat Edge Intelligence

Cortney Casey vs Jessica Aguilar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-10-0Record20-10-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'3"
67"Reach63,0"
125 lbsWeight107 lbs
MMA LabTeamLiborio Experience

What's at stake

Jessica Aguilar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Cortney Casey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cortney CaseyNow 1571
If they win+18→ 1589
If they lose-14→ 1557
Jessica AguilarNow 1612
If they win+11→ 1623
If they lose-13→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
4.93
39%
Strike accuracy
51%
4
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.19
55%
Strike defense
54%
0.39
Takedown avg.
0.94
31%
Takedown accuracy
25%
40%
Takedown defense
50%
0.47
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Cortney CaseyJessica Aguilar
1550160020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
4 (40%)
Submission
8 (40%)
3 (30%)
Decision
10 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Cortney Casey54%
Jessica Aguilar 46%Elo baseline: 44%

The Combat Edge model makes Cortney Casey a 54% favorite over Jessica Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jessica Aguilar's way (44%).

Jessica Aguilar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1571, a 41-point edge.

Jessica Aguilar enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Cortney Casey finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Jessica Aguilar 50%.

Cortney Casey carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.