Combat Edge Intelligence

Cortney Casey vs Mara Romero Borella

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-10-0Record12-9-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
67"Reach38,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA LabTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Cortney Casey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mara Romero Borella carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cortney CaseyNow 1571
If they win+14→ 1585
If they lose-18→ 1553
Mara Romero BorellaNow 1531
If they win+18→ 1549
If they lose-14→ 1517

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.54
39%
Strike accuracy
38%
4
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.48
55%
Strike defense
71%
0.39
Takedown avg.
1.83
31%
Takedown accuracy
44%
40%
Takedown defense
67%
0.47
Submission avg.
0.23

Trajectory

Cortney CaseyMara Romero Borella
1550160020182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
4 (40%)
Submission
4 (33%)
3 (30%)
Decision
5 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Cortney Casey70%
Mara Romero Borella 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Cortney Casey a 70% favorite over Mara Romero Borella in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Cortney Casey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1571 to 1531, a 40-point edge.

Mara Romero Borella enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Cortney Casey finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Mara Romero Borella 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.