Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record18-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'11"Height5'9"
70"Reach69"
140 lbsWeight135 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Cory Sandhagen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1766
If they lose-11→ 1742
If they win+14→ 1804
If they lose-18→ 1772
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cory SandhagenMario Bautista
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista61%
Cory Sandhagen 39%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 61% favorite over Cory Sandhagen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1753, a 37-point edge.
Cory Sandhagen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cory Sandhagen finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 56%.
Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista share 1 common opponent: Umar Nurmagomedov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.