Combat Edge Intelligence

Costas Philippou vs Gegard Mousasi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record49-9-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'2"
TBDReach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Bellmore Kickboxing AcademyTeamTeam Jurojin

What's at stake

Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Costas Philippou carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Costas PhilippouNow 1681
If they win+23→ 1704
If they lose-9→ 1672
Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+6→ 1862
If they lose-18→ 1838

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.19
Sig. strikes / min
3.75
35%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.21
54%
Strike defense
69%
0.40
Takedown avg.
1.59
43%
Takedown accuracy
60%
66%
Takedown defense
60%
0.27
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Costas PhilippouGegard Mousasi
17001800190020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

7 (54%)
KO/TKO
28 (57%)
1 (8%)
Submission
12 (24%)
5 (38%)
Decision
9 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Gegard Mousasi78%
Costas Philippou 22%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Gegard Mousasi a 78% favorite over Costas Philippou in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1681, a 175-point edge.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Costas Philippou finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Gegard Mousasi 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.