Combat Edge Intelligence

Costas Philippou vs Lorenz Larkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record27-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReach73"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Bellmore Kickboxing AcademyTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Costas Philippou carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Costas PhilippouNow 1681
If they win+20→ 1701
If they lose-12→ 1669
Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+9→ 1775
If they lose-15→ 1751

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.19
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
35%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
54%
Strike defense
64%
0.40
Takedown avg.
0.27
43%
Takedown accuracy
43%
66%
Takedown defense
79%
0.27
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Costas PhilippouLorenz Larkin
165017001750201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (54%)
KO/TKO
15 (56%)
1 (8%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (38%)
Decision
12 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenz Larkin70%
Costas Philippou 30%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 70% favorite over Costas Philippou in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1681, a 85-point edge.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Costas Philippou finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.