Costello van Steenis vs Derek Brunson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record24-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77"Reach77,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
MMA Vlaardingen· 1680 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1768
If they lose-16→ 1736
If they win+12→ 1767
If they lose-12→ 1743
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Costello van SteenisDerek Brunson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Costello van Steenis75%
Derek Brunson 25%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Costello van Steenis a 75% favorite over Derek Brunson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derek Brunson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1752 vs 1755), separated by just 3 points.
Costello van Steenis enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Costello van Steenis finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Derek Brunson 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.