Coty Wheeler vs Shota Nagano
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record12-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
TBDReach-
135 lbsWeight133 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamReversal Gym Musashi Kosugi Tokoro Plus
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Coty WheelerShota Nagano
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shota Nagano66%
Coty Wheeler 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shota Nagano a 66% favorite over Coty Wheeler in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Coty Wheeler's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1583 vs 1580), separated by just 3 points.
Coty Wheeler enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shota Nagano enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Coty Wheeler finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Shota Nagano 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.