Combat Edge Intelligence

Craig Oxley vs Kyohei Hagiwara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-3-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
TeamTeam Smoker

What's at stake

Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Craig Oxley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Craig OxleyNow 1434
If they win+27→ 1461
If they lose-21→ 1413
Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1479
If they win+14→ 1493
If they lose-18→ 1461

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1508 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Craig OxleyKyohei Hagiwara
145015002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyohei Hagiwara78%
Craig Oxley 22%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 78% favorite over Craig Oxley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1479 to 1434, a 45-point edge.

Craig Oxley enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.