Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs Greg McIntyre

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record6-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+25→ 1499
If they lose-23→ 1451
Greg McIntyreNow 1483
If they win+23→ 1506
If they lose-25→ 1458

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.79
TBD
Strike accuracy
30%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.36
TBD
Strike defense
41%
TBD
Takedown avg.
5.09
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraGreg McIntyre
145015002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (80%)
1 (50%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira66%
Greg McIntyre 34%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 66% favorite over Greg McIntyre in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Greg McIntyre's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1474 vs 1483), separated by just 9 points.

Greg McIntyre 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.