Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs John Polakowski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record2-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamThe Pit

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+24→ 1498
If they lose-24→ 1450
John PolakowskiNow 1476
If they win+24→ 1500
If they lose-24→ 1452

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.14
TBD
Strike accuracy
4%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
TBD
Strike defense
44%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
75%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.05

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraJohn Polakowski
1500155020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (50%)
Decision
1 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira75%
John Polakowski 25%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 75% favorite over John Polakowski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Polakowski's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1474 vs 1476), separated by just 2 points.

John Polakowski enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.