Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs Leonardo Mafra

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record15-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight170 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamKings MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+24→ 1498
If they lose-24→ 1450
Leonardo MafraNow 1473
If they win+24→ 1497
If they lose-24→ 1449

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.55
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.38
TBD
Strike defense
44%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.12
TBD
Takedown accuracy
83%
TBD
Takedown defense
69%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraLeonardo Mafra
14501500201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (60%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (7%)
1 (50%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira70%
Leonardo Mafra 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 70% favorite over Leonardo Mafra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1474 vs 1473), separated by just 1 points.

Leonardo Mafra 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.