Combat Edge Intelligence

Crosley Gracie vs José Medina

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-2-0Record11-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach74″
180 lbsWeight185 lbs
Crosley Gracie BJJTeamPhuket Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Crosley GracieNow 1533
If they win+24→ 1557
If they lose-24→ 1509
José MedinaNow 1536
If they win+16→ 1552
If they lose-16→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.16
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.07
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.40
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
28%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Crosley GracieJosé Medina
1550160020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
1 (50%)
Submission
2 (18%)
1 (50%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

José Medina52%
Crosley Gracie 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes José Medina a 52% favorite over Crosley Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1533 vs 1536), separated by just 3 points.

Crosley Gracie enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

José Medina enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

José Medina 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.