Cub Swanson vs Dustin Poirier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record30-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach72″
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Cub Swanson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1762
If they lose-10→ 1738
If they win+10→ 1822
If they lose-14→ 1798
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1814 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonDustin Poirier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier66%
Cub Swanson 34%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 66% favorite over Cub Swanson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1748, a 64-point edge.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier 77%.
Dustin Poirier carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.