Cub Swanson vs Hacran Dias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record27-11-1
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"Reach69,0"
145 lbsWeight162 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Cub Swanson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Hacran Dias carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1756
If they lose-16→ 1732
If they win+16→ 1652
If they lose-8→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonHacran Dias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cub Swanson79%
Hacran Dias 21%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Cub Swanson a 79% favorite over Hacran Dias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Cub Swanson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1636, a 112-point edge.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Hacran Dias enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Hacran Dias 48%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.