Cub Swanson vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record29-23-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Cub Swanson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1754
If they lose-18→ 1730
If they win+18→ 1569
If they lose-6→ 1545
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cub Swanson79%
Jeremy Stephens 21%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Cub Swanson a 79% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Cub Swanson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1551, a 197-point edge.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.