Cub Swanson vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record28-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Cub Swanson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1763
If they lose-9→ 1739
If they win+9→ 1839
If they lose-15→ 1815
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway79%
Cub Swanson 21%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 79% favorite over Cub Swanson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1748, a 82-point edge.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.