Combat Edge Intelligence

Curt Warburton vs Spencer Fisher

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-6-0Record24-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
NEVTTeamTBD

What's at stake

Spencer Fisher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Curt Warburton carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Curt WarburtonNow 1567
If they win+20→ 1587
If they lose-12→ 1555
Spencer FisherNow 1654
If they win+9→ 1663
If they lose-15→ 1639

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1486 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.13
Sig. strikes / min
3.17
42%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.03
43%
Strike defense
64%
2.35
Takedown avg.
0.67
50%
Takedown accuracy
30%
83%
Takedown defense
60%
0.94
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Curt WarburtonSpencer Fisher
155016001650170020102011201220132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
4 (29%)
Submission
9 (38%)
5 (36%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Spencer Fisher70%
Curt Warburton 30%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Spencer Fisher a 70% favorite over Curt Warburton in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Spencer Fisher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1567, a 87-point edge.

Spencer Fisher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Curt Warburton finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Spencer Fisher 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.