Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach79"
256 lbsWeight264 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Curtis Blaydes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Derrick Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1792
If they lose-13→ 1768
If they win+13→ 1758
If they lose-11→ 1734
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Curtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Curtis Blaydes63%
Derrick Lewis 37%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Curtis Blaydes a 63% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Curtis Blaydes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1745, a 36-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Curtis Blaydes finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis share 5 common opponents: Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Josh Hokit, Jailton Almeida and Sergei Pavlovich, among 5 in total.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.