Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
19-6-0Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach79"
256 lbsWeight264 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Curtis Blaydes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Derrick Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1779
If they lose-13→ 1755
If they win+13→ 1757
If they lose-11→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Curtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Curtis Blaydes60%
Derrick Lewis 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Curtis Blaydes a 60% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Curtis Blaydes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1768 to 1744, a 24-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Curtis Blaydes finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis share 4 common opponents: Josh Hokit, Jailton Almeida, Sergei Pavlovich and Chris Daukaus.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.