Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-6-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
80"Reach41,0"
256 lbsWeight265 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Curtis Blaydes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Justin Willis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1776
If they lose-16→ 1752
If they win+21→ 1678
If they lose-11→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Curtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Curtis Blaydes72%
Justin Willis 28%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Curtis Blaydes a 72% favorite over Justin Willis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Curtis Blaydes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1768 to 1657, a 111-point edge.
Curtis Blaydes finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Justin Willis 50%.
Curtis Blaydes and Justin Willis share 1 common opponent: Rizvan Kuniev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.