Curtis Blaydes vs Sergei Pavlovich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-6-0Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
80"Reach84"
256 lbsWeight260 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
Sergei Pavlovich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Curtis Blaydes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1781
If they lose-11→ 1757
If they win+14→ 1823
If they lose-18→ 1791
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Curtis BlaydesSergei Pavlovich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich67%
Curtis Blaydes 33%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 67% favorite over Curtis Blaydes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Sergei Pavlovich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1809 to 1768, a 41-point edge.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Curtis Blaydes finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.
Curtis Blaydes and Sergei Pavlovich share 3 common opponents: Tom Aspinall, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Derrick Lewis.
Sergei Pavlovich carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2025