Combat Edge Intelligence

Curtis Millender vs Siyar Bahadurzada

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-13-0Record24-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'11"
78"Reach72,5"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
CSWTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Siyar Bahadurzada is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Curtis Millender carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Curtis MillenderNow 1596
If they win+15→ 1611
If they lose-9→ 1587
Siyar BahadurzadaNow 1693
If they win+9→ 1702
If they lose-15→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
2.91
46%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
61%
Strike defense
49%
0.43
Takedown avg.
1.32
100%
Takedown accuracy
62%
57%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Curtis MillenderSiyar Bahadurzada
16001650170020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
14 (58%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (25%)
15 (68%)
Decision
4 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Siyar Bahadurzada75%
Curtis Millender 25%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Siyar Bahadurzada a 75% favorite over Curtis Millender in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Siyar Bahadurzada holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1596, a 97-point edge.

Curtis Millender enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Siyar Bahadurzada enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Curtis Millender finishes 32% of wins inside the distance, Siyar Bahadurzada 83%.

Curtis Millender carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.