Combat Edge Intelligence

Curtis Millender vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-13-0Record23-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'10"
78"Reach70,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
CSWTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Curtis Millender is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Curtis MillenderNow 1596
If they win+11→ 1607
If they lose-13→ 1583
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+13→ 1585
If they lose-11→ 1561

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
46%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
61%
Strike defense
63%
0.43
Takedown avg.
0.71
100%
Takedown accuracy
61%
57%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Curtis MillenderThiago Alves
1600165020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (4%)
15 (68%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Curtis Millender and Thiago Alves within a point of even.

Curtis Millender holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1596 to 1572, a 24-point edge.

Curtis Millender enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Curtis Millender finishes 32% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Curtis Millender carries a 8-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.