Curtis Millender vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-13-0Record23-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'10"
78"Reach70,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
CSW· 1624 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Curtis Millender is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1610
If they lose-13→ 1586
If they win+13→ 1586
If they lose-11→ 1562
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1654 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Curtis MillenderThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Curtis Millender60%
Thiago Alves 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Curtis Millender a 60% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Curtis Millender holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1599 to 1573, a 26-point edge.
Curtis Millender enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Curtis Millender finishes 32% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Curtis Millender carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.