Cássio Barão vs Lucas Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-1Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
71"Reach74.5"
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
Dyogo Teles MMATeamBrazilian TKO· 1643 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Lucas Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Cássio Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1639
If they lose-15→ 1607
If they win+15→ 1654
If they lose-17→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cássio BarãoLucas Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cássio Barão52%
Lucas Almeida 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Cássio Barão a 52% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Almeida's way (48%).
Lucas Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1622, a 17-point edge.
Cássio Barão finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Almeida 100%.
Lucas Almeida carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.