Combat Edge Intelligence

César Almeida vs Jason Miller

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record23-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Lotus MMATeamTeam Mayhem

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

César AlmeidaNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Jason MillerNow 1627
If they win+12→ 1639
If they lose-12→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.45
59%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.51
46%
Strike defense
49%
0
Takedown avg.
1.02
0%
Takedown accuracy
17%
52%
Takedown defense
44%
0.21
Submission avg.
1.28

Trajectory

César AlmeidaJason Miller
160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (71%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
0 (0%)
Submission
14 (61%)
2 (29%)
Decision
4 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

César Almeida70%
Jason Miller 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes César Almeida a 70% favorite over Jason Miller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1627), separated by just 0 points.

César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason Miller enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Jason Miller 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.