César Almeida vs Murilo Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record20-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Lotus MMATeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
If they win+12→ 1636
If they lose-12→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
César AlmeidaMurilo Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
César Almeida54%
Murilo Rua 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes César Almeida a 54% favorite over Murilo Rua in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1624), separated by just 3 points.
César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Murilo Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Murilo Rua 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.