César Almeida vs Ozzy Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record10-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'4"
74"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Lotus MMATeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts· 1672 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
César Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ozzy Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1642
If they lose-17→ 1610
If they win+17→ 1629
If they lose-15→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
César AlmeidaOzzy Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ozzy Diaz52%
César Almeida 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Ozzy Diaz a 52% favorite over César Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans César Almeida's way (48%).
César Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1627 to 1612, a 15-point edge.
César Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ozzy Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ozzy Diaz 90%.
Ozzy Diaz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.