Combat Edge Intelligence

Da'Mon Blackshear vs Mario Bautista

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-8-1Record18-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Da'Mon Blackshear carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Da'Mon BlackshearNow 1688
If they win+15→ 1703
If they lose-9→ 1679
Mario BautistaNow 1790
If they win+11→ 1801
If they lose-21→ 1769

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1669 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.70
Sig. strikes / min
5.30
46%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.98
53%
Strike defense
55%
1.56
Takedown avg.
1.91
36%
Takedown accuracy
38%
71%
Takedown defense
56%
1.56
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Da'Mon BlackshearMario Bautista
16501700175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (12%)
KO/TKO
3 (17%)
11 (65%)
Submission
7 (39%)
4 (24%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Mario Bautista73%
Da'Mon Blackshear 27%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 73% favorite over Da'Mon Blackshear in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1688, a 102-point edge.

Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Da'Mon Blackshear finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 56%.

Da'Mon Blackshear carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.