Daijiro Matsui vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-31-7Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
FreelanceTeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Daijiro Matsui carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1437
If they lose-11→ 1413
If they win+21→ 1488
If they lose-27→ 1440
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior69%
Daijiro Matsui 31%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 69% favorite over Daijiro Matsui in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1424, a 43-point edge.
Daijiro Matsui enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Daijiro Matsui finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.