Daijiro Matsui vs Ryan Parker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-31-7Record4-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Freelance· 1622 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam XCWT MMA
What's at stake
Ryan Parker is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Daijiro Matsui carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1438
If they lose-10→ 1414
If they win+14→ 1490
If they lose-18→ 1458
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daijiro MatsuiRyan Parker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Parker73%
Daijiro Matsui 27%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Parker a 73% favorite over Daijiro Matsui in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Ryan Parker holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1476 to 1424, a 52-point edge.
Daijiro Matsui enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryan Parker enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daijiro Matsui finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Parker 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.