Combat Edge Intelligence

Daisuke Nakamura vs Jake McHugh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-25-1Record4-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
U-File CampTeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daisuke NakamuraNow 1543
If they win+12→ 1555
If they lose-12→ 1531
Jake McHughNow 1545
If they win+24→ 1569
If they lose-24→ 1521

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1508 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Daisuke NakamuraJake McHugh
15001550160020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (24%)
KO/TKO
1 (25%)
18 (53%)
Submission
2 (50%)
8 (24%)
Decision
1 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake McHugh67%
Daisuke Nakamura 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake McHugh a 67% favorite over Daisuke Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1543 vs 1545), separated by just 2 points.

Daisuke Nakamura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Daisuke Nakamura finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Jake McHugh 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.