Combat Edge Intelligence

Daisuke Sugie vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

10-8-1Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
154 lbsWeight160 lbs
AliveTeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Daisuke SugieNow 1511
If they win+16→ 1527
If they lose-16→ 1495
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1503 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Daisuke SugieNathan Trepagnier
1500155020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
4 (40%)
Submission
2 (40%)
6 (60%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier63%
Daisuke Sugie 37%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 63% favorite over Daisuke Sugie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daisuke Sugie's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1511 vs 1505), separated by just 6 points.

Daisuke Sugie finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.