Dakota Bush vs Morquez Forest
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record8-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
73"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Dakota Bush is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Morquez Forest carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1708
If they lose-18→ 1676
If they win+27→ 1671
If they lose-21→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dakota BushMorquez Forest
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dakota Bush60%
Morquez Forest 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Dakota Bush a 60% favorite over Morquez Forest in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Dakota Bush holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1644, a 50-point edge.
Dakota Bush enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Morquez Forest enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dakota Bush finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Morquez Forest 63%.
Dakota Bush and Morquez Forest share 1 common opponent: Robert Watley.
Dakota Bush carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.