Combat Edge Intelligence

DaMarques Johnson vs Gunnar Nelson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-15-0Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Elite PerformanceTeamMjolnir

What's at stake

Gunnar Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — DaMarques Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

DaMarques JohnsonNow 1562
If they win+22→ 1584
If they lose-10→ 1552
Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+10→ 1719
If they lose-22→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1598 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.11
Sig. strikes / min
1.77
38%
Strike accuracy
61%
3.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
51%
Strike defense
49%
1.18
Takedown avg.
2
56%
Takedown accuracy
52%
19%
Takedown defense
68%
0.71
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

DaMarques JohnsonGunnar Nelson
155016001650170020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
6 (40%)
Submission
13 (68%)
2 (13%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Gunnar Nelson84%
DaMarques Johnson 16%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 84% favorite over DaMarques Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Gunnar Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1562, a 147-point edge.

DaMarques Johnson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

DaMarques Johnson finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.