Damian Grabowski vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-5-0Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
41,0"Reach79"
261 lbsWeight264 lbs
Lutadores OpoleTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Damian Grabowski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1696
If they lose-10→ 1672
If they win+10→ 1755
If they lose-14→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Damian GrabowskiDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis84%
Damian Grabowski 16%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 84% favorite over Damian Grabowski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1682, a 63-point edge.
Damian Grabowski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Damian Grabowski finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.