Damian Janikowski vs Derek Downey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-9-0Record11-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'2"
70"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
NemesisTeamVictory MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-16→ 1505
If they win+16→ 1540
If they lose-16→ 1508
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Damian JanikowskiDerek Downey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Damian Janikowski58%
Derek Downey 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Damian Janikowski a 58% favorite over Derek Downey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derek Downey's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1524), separated by just 3 points.
Damian Janikowski finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Derek Downey 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.