Combat Edge Intelligence

Damian Janikowski vs Geoff Pavey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Pavey

Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

11-9-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'5"
70"Reach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
NemesisTeamSensei MMA

What's at stake

Damian Janikowski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Geoff Pavey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Damian JanikowskiNow 1521
If they win+15→ 1536
If they lose-17→ 1504
Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+25→ 1526
If they lose-23→ 1478

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Damian JanikowskiGeoff Pavey
145015001550202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
3 (100%)
2 (18%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (36%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Damian Janikowski and Geoff Pavey within a point of even.

Damian Janikowski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1501, a 20-point edge.

Damian Janikowski finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Geoff Pavey 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.