Combat Edge Intelligence

Damian Rzepecki vs Jared Gordon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record21-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
73.6"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Damian RzepeckiNow 1676
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Jared GordonNow 1678
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-12→ 1666

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1705 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.64
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.78
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Damian RzepeckiJared Gordon
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
8 (38%)
5 (50%)
Submission
2 (10%)
1 (10%)
Decision
11 (52%)

Combat Edge model read

Damian Rzepecki61%
Jared Gordon 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Damian Rzepecki a 61% favorite over Jared Gordon in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jared Gordon's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1678), separated by just 2 points.

Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Damian Rzepecki finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Jared Gordon 48%.

Damian Rzepecki carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.