Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-3-0Record24-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
74"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Boets MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Damir Ismagulov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1785
If they lose-11→ 1761
If they win+11→ 1812
If they lose-13→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Damir IsmagulovGrant Dawson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson74%
Damir Ismagulov 26%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 74% favorite over Damir Ismagulov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1801 to 1772, a 29-point edge.
Damir Ismagulov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Damir Ismagulov finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.
Damir Ismagulov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.