Combat Edge Intelligence

Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-3-0Record24-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
74"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Boets MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Damir Ismagulov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Damir IsmagulovNow 1767
If they win+13→ 1780
If they lose-11→ 1756
Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+11→ 1813
If they lose-13→ 1789

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.36
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
43%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
61%
Strike defense
45%
1
Takedown avg.
3.81
28%
Takedown accuracy
40%
70%
Takedown defense
57%
0
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Damir IsmagulovGrant Dawson
175018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
1 (4%)
Submission
14 (58%)
12 (46%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Grant Dawson71%
Damir Ismagulov 29%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 71% favorite over Damir Ismagulov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1767, a 35-point edge.

Damir Ismagulov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Damir Ismagulov finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.

Damir Ismagulov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.