Damir Ismagulov vs Rafael Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-3-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
74"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Boets MMATeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Damir Ismagulov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Rafael Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1774
If they lose-17→ 1750
If they win+23→ 1636
If they lose-9→ 1604
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Damir IsmagulovRafael Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Damir Ismagulov79%
Rafael Alves 21%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Damir Ismagulov a 79% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Damir Ismagulov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1767 to 1613, a 154-point edge.
Damir Ismagulov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Damir Ismagulov finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.
Damir Ismagulov carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.