Dan Bobish vs Mac Papalii
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record2-0-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
332 lbsWeight273 lbs
Strong Style Fight TeamTeamBattle Box· 1575 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Dan Bobish is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mac Papalii carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1586
If they lose-17→ 1554
If they win+25→ 1580
If they lose-23→ 1532
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dan BobishMac Papalii
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii63%
Dan Bobish 37%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 63% favorite over Dan Bobish in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dan Bobish's way (48%).
Dan Bobish holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1571 to 1555, a 16-point edge.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dan Bobish finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.