Dan Cramer vs Matt Arroyo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
Dan Cramer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Matt Arroyo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1601
If they lose-18→ 1569
If they win+27→ 1565
If they lose-21→ 1517
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan CramerMatt Arroyo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Cramer68%
Matt Arroyo 32%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Cramer a 68% favorite over Matt Arroyo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Dan Cramer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1587 to 1538, a 49-point edge.
Dan Cramer finishes 18% of wins inside the distance, Matt Arroyo 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.