Dan Downes vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record29-23-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RoufusportTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Jeremy Stephens is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dan Downes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1528
If they lose-21→ 1480
If they win+10→ 1561
If they lose-14→ 1537
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan DownesJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremy Stephens63%
Dan Downes 37%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 63% favorite over Dan Downes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Jeremy Stephens holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1551 to 1501, a 50-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dan Downes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.