Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Downes vs Ramsey Nijem

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dan Downes
us

Dan Downes

“Danny Boy”

8-3-0LightweightUFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record10-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RoufusportTeamSkrap Pack

What's at stake

Ramsey Nijem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Dan Downes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan DownesNow 1501
If they win+25→ 1526
If they lose-23→ 1478
Ramsey NijemNow 1517
If they win+15→ 1532
If they lose-17→ 1500

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1522 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1630 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.66
Sig. strikes / min
3.05
34%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.62
37%
Strike defense
63%
0
Takedown avg.
5.32
TBD
Takedown accuracy
63%
37%
Takedown defense
56%
0.53
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Dan DownesRamsey Nijem
15002012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
1 (13%)
Submission
2 (20%)
2 (25%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Ramsey Nijem56%
Dan Downes 44%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Ramsey Nijem a 56% favorite over Dan Downes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Ramsey Nijem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1517 to 1501, a 16-point edge.

Ramsey Nijem enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Dan Downes finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ramsey Nijem 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.