Dan Hardy vs Duane Ludwig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-10-0Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
74"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Rough HouseTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
Dan Hardy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Duane Ludwig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1690
If they lose-18→ 1666
If they win+23→ 1531
If they lose-9→ 1499
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan HardyDuane Ludwig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Hardy78%
Duane Ludwig 22%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Hardy a 78% favorite over Duane Ludwig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Dan Hardy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1508, a 176-point edge.
Dan Hardy enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dan Hardy finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Duane Ludwig 76%.
Dan Hardy and Duane Ludwig share 1 common opponent: Amir Sadollah.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.