Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Hardy vs Rory Markham

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dan Hardy

Dan Hardy

“The Outlaw”

25-10-0WelterweightUFC

1684Good

Tale of the tape

25-10-0Record17-6-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight177 lbs
Team Rough HouseTeamMiletich Martial Arts

What's at stake

Dan Hardy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rory Markham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan HardyNow 1684
If they win+10→ 1694
If they lose-14→ 1670
Rory MarkhamNow 1636
If they win+18→ 1654
If they lose-14→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.98
35%
Strike accuracy
22%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
10.27
51%
Strike defense
45%
0.73
Takedown avg.
0
35%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
35%
Takedown defense
0%
0.36
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Dan HardyRory Markham
165017002010201120122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

14 (56%)
KO/TKO
12 (71%)
2 (8%)
Submission
5 (29%)
9 (36%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Dan Hardy68%
Rory Markham 32%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Dan Hardy a 68% favorite over Rory Markham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Dan Hardy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1636, a 48-point edge.

Dan Hardy enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Dan Hardy finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Rory Markham 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.