Dan Hooker vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-14-0Record28-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
City KickboxingTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Dan Hooker carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1743
If they lose-6→ 1719
If they win+6→ 1928
If they lose-18→ 1904
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1785 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan HookerIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev87%
Dan Hooker 13%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 87% favorite over Dan Hooker in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1725, a 197-point edge.
Dan Hooker enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Dan Hooker finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 64%.
Dan Hooker carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.