Dan Hooker vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-15-0Record29-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
75"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
City KickboxingTeamEagles MMA· 1815 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Dan Hooker carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1732
If they lose-5→ 1708
If they win+5→ 1935
If they lose-19→ 1911
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1764 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1797 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dan HookerIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev79%
Dan Hooker 21%Elo baseline: 78%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 79% favorite over Dan Hooker in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1930 to 1713, a 217-point edge.
Dan Hooker enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Dan Hooker finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 62%.
Dan Hooker carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.