Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Miller vs Demian Maia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-8-0Record28-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Dan Miller carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan MillerNow 1687
If they win+20→ 1707
If they lose-12→ 1675
Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+9→ 1783
If they lose-15→ 1759

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.03
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
36%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
50%
Strike defense
64%
1.67
Takedown avg.
2.49
55%
Takedown accuracy
25%
47%
Takedown defense
62%
1.77
Submission avg.
0.99

Trajectory

Dan MillerDemian Maia
17001750180020142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
3 (11%)
9 (64%)
Submission
14 (50%)
4 (29%)
Decision
11 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia57%
Dan Miller 43%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 57% favorite over Dan Miller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1687, a 87-point edge.

Dan Miller enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dan Miller finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.