Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Miller vs Jake Rosholt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-8-0Record12-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamTeam Takedown

What's at stake

Dan Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jake Rosholt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan MillerNow 1687
If they win+10→ 1697
If they lose-22→ 1665
Jake RosholtNow 1560
If they win+22→ 1582
If they lose-10→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.03
Sig. strikes / min
2.68
36%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.33
50%
Strike defense
49%
1.67
Takedown avg.
6.51
55%
Takedown accuracy
69%
47%
Takedown defense
0%
1.77
Submission avg.
1.78

Trajectory

Dan MillerJake Rosholt
1550160016501700201020112012201320142015

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
9 (64%)
Submission
6 (50%)
4 (29%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Dan Miller72%
Jake Rosholt 28%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Dan Miller a 72% favorite over Jake Rosholt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Dan Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1560, a 127-point edge.

Dan Miller enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jake Rosholt enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dan Miller finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Jake Rosholt 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.