Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Miller vs John Salter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-8-0Record19-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sussex County MMATeamGym-O

What's at stake

John Salter is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dan Miller carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan MillerNow 1687
If they win+18→ 1705
If they lose-14→ 1673
John SalterNow 1725
If they win+11→ 1736
If they lose-13→ 1712

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.03
Sig. strikes / min
1.35
36%
Strike accuracy
24%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.31
50%
Strike defense
69%
1.67
Takedown avg.
2.61
55%
Takedown accuracy
40%
47%
Takedown defense
67%
1.77
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Dan MillerJohn Salter
170017502014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
7 (37%)
9 (64%)
Submission
10 (53%)
4 (29%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

John Salter75%
Dan Miller 25%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes John Salter a 75% favorite over Dan Miller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

John Salter holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1687, a 38-point edge.

Dan Miller enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dan Miller finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, John Salter 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.